Tuesday, November 02, 2004

Election Day IV: 2PM VNS Numbers 

Jerome at MyDD has 'em. Suffice it to say, they look good for Kerry so far. But as I said before, there are many reasons not to trust these numbers.

UPDATE: New reasons not to trust those numbers: now Drudge claims they're screwy 'cause they heavily oversampled women. This statement, on its own, is completely uninterpretable, as it doesn't tell us whether the entire national sample is strange like this, or if it is a factor in some specific states.

Also, Wonkette has just posted another set of alleged exit poll data, which is slightly less favorable to Kerry, although still showing him as leading in Ohio and Florida.

UPDATE 2: Lots of sites all over the political spectrum seem to have failed. There is speculation that it is a DoS attack, but it seems just as likely that freaked-out blog addicts are swamping the servers.

In any case, here's the latest rumor, via MyDD:

FL: 50/49 - KERRY
OH: 52/47 - KERRY
MI: 51/48 - KERRY
PA: 58/42 - KERRY
IA: 50/48 - KERRY
WI: 53/47 - KERRY
MN: 57/42 - KERRY
NH: 58/41 - KERRY
ME: 55/44 - KERRY
NM: 49/49 - TIE
NV: 48/49 - BUSH
CO: 49/50 - BUSH
AR: 45/54 - BUSH
NC: 47/53 - BUSH

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